Happy New Year!
Posted by Nadine Dorries, MP for Mid Bedfordshire, at 12:24, Thu 4 January 2007:
Well the ten bird roast was a roaring success - but everyone had so much Champagne that I'm sure a kebab would have had the same response! May I firstly wish you everyone a Happy New Year! Please find below my 'New Years Message'
Whether we like it or not, what will affect us all in 2007 will be determined by how the situation develops in the Middle East.
Without doubt, Iraq is on the brink of full civil war. The coalition forces have been reduced to mere by-standers observing an internal conflict between long standing feuding factions within the Islamic population. I say Islamic, because tensions between Sunnis and Shias are not limited to Iraq and are a pan Islamic problem which casts its shadow over all countries in the region.
I said earlier in the year in my blog, the division of Iraq into three independent states is the only way to bring peace within that country, but what effect would that have on the rest of the region?
Partition of Iraq would, for the first time, create a shared border between Sunni Saudi and Shia Iran. If partition did take place, the southern state centred on Basra would be Shia and heavily influenced by the revolutionary neighbouring Shia Iran.
This would have a destabilising effect on other countries in the region including Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Saudi is already vulnerable; an oil producing state with a disenchanted Sunni population; it has a weak ruling family and is the former home to Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda. Would the oil producing, western friendly Saudi Royal family become a terrorist target? As callous as this sounds, if they were, the effect such an attack would have oil prices would probably send us into a world wide recession.
So maybe partition isn’t seriously on the table because of the trouble we cannot clearly foresee the trouble that it would bring. Which takes us back to civil war in Iraq. Does this mean that the present situation, i.e. hundreds of deaths per day, is the lesser of obvious evils? It is in fact an absolutely desperate situation. Is this as good as it is going to get? That the daily loss of British and American lives is the price we have to pay for, amongst other things, for world economic stability?
The death of Saddam may have brought joy to the Shias but the Kurds feel cheated. They have been robbed of their opportunity to let the world know of the atrocities they suffered at the hands of Saddam. Who will be interested now Saddam is dead? The Sunnis will be galvanised and united in their hatred. They will see the death of Saddam as further American interference into the affairs of Iraq.
Commentators now question whether more people may have died in Iraq since the invasion than died under the rule of Saddam. What victory is this? Are things better for the Israelis? Is the world a safer, better place?
Let’s hope 2007 can bring some answers and maybe this time next year things will be calmer and more peaceful for us all.
I will continue to pray throughout 2007 for God to send his angels to watch over Mid Bedfordshire. That we will know peace happiness and prosperity and that 2007 will be a year filled with joy for us all and those we love and care for.
God bless, Nadine.
Nadine Dorries MP Member of Parliament for Mid-Bedfordshire.
PS - If you have any thoughts, views or concerns on the issues raised in my new Year Message then please get in contact with me in the usual way.
Write to me at: Nadine Dorries MP House of Commons London SW1A 0AA
Telephone me on: 020 7219 4239
Fax me on: 020 7219 6428
Email me at: dorriesn@parliament.uk
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